The S&P 500 Hit an All-Time High. It Took 10 Trading Days to Erase a War.
7,022.95. A new record, surpassing the January peak. The Nasdaq posted its longest winning streak in history. The index rose 9.8% in 10 sessions, faster than the COVID rebound. Whether the optimism is justified is another question entirely.
The Numbers
On April 15, the S&P 500 closed at 7,022.95, surpassing its previous all-time high of 7,002.28 set on January 28. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.59% to 24,016.02, also a record, extending its winning streak to 11 consecutive days, the longest in the index’s history. The S&P 500 has risen 10 of the past 11 trading sessions, gaining 9.8% across that stretch. For context: that is a faster rebound than the one following Liberation Day tariff shock in April 2025, and the fastest 10-session rally since the post-COVID bounce in April 2020.
The recovery has been concentrated at the top. Since the S&P’s low of 6,316.91 on March 30, a fund tracking only the “Magnificent 7” mega-cap tech stocks is up nearly 18%. The equal-weight S&P 500 (excluding those seven companies) is up about 8%. Nvidia has risen for 11 consecutive sessions, its longest daily winning streak on record. Tesla surged 7% on April 15 after CEO Elon Musk provided an update on the company’s AI5 chip.
How We Got Here
The V-shape, again: The S&P 500 fell 9.8% from its January peak to its March 30 low, driven by the U.S.-Iran war, $110+ oil, and fears of a global shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. It then recovered every point of that decline in 10 trading days. “As far as the stock market is concerned, the war is over until further notice,” wrote Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research. The pattern is now familiar: shock, sell-off, V-shaped recovery powered by tech. It happened with tariffs in 2025. It happened with COVID in 2020. The market’s muscle memory is to buy the dip and trust that the worst case does not materialize.
Peace talks, not peace: The rally is built on a ceasefire that has not produced a peace deal. Iran’s Supreme Leader has publicly stated that aggressors will be punished. The Strait of Hormuz is technically open but requires coordination with Iran’s armed forces. Oil is still near $95, well above its pre-war $70 level. VP Vance led talks in Islamabad over the weekend without a breakthrough. A second round may happen “in the next few days,” according to the White House. The market is pricing in a positive outcome from negotiations that have not concluded.
Earnings are providing cover: Goldman Sachs posted record equities revenue. JPMorgan beat on every line. Morgan Stanley hit record revenue on April 15, rising 5%. Bank of America rose 2.5% on strong Q1 profits. The combination of strong bank earnings and ceasefire optimism has given bulls enough justification to push through the January highs. But the IMF raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.4% on the same day the S&P hit its record. The disconnect between market euphoria and underlying economic stress is as wide as it has been since early 2022.
- Ceasefire collapse: If talks fail and fighting resumes, oil returns above $110 and the rally unwinds as fast as it materialized. The market is fully priced for peace.
- Concentration risk: The Magnificent 7 are carrying the rally. The equal-weight S&P has recovered roughly half of what the cap-weighted index has. Breadth is narrow.
- Inflation lag: March CPI hit 3.3%. The Fed is leaning hawkish. A rate hike later this year would reprice every growth stock that drove the recovery.
- Earnings growth is real: S&P 500 earnings growth is projected at 17.4% for 2026. With the index back at its January level but estimates higher, stocks are technically cheaper than they were three months ago.
- AI spending is the floor: Amazon ($200B capex), Meta ($35B to CoreWeave), Anthropic ($30B revenue), and Microsoft are all accelerating. The AI infrastructure buildout is providing a demand floor that war and inflation have not dented.