S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow All Closed at Records. The Market Has Stopped Caring About Iran.

Where Things Stand

All three major U.S. equity indexes closed at fresh records on May 27, with the S&P 500 at 7,529.25, the Nasdaq Composite at 29,941.75, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 50,687. The index has now risen 33% year-over-year and 4.7% in the past month. Brent crude slipped below $95 per barrel for the second consecutive session on reports that Iran will restore pre-war shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz within a month. TTF natural gas fell under €47/MWh.

This is the third record-setting stretch since the Iran war began on February 28. The first peak came on April 15, when the S&P first surpassed its January high. After choppy late-April trading, the indexes resumed their climb in May on a combination of Nvidia’s blowout earnings, the SpaceX IPO filing, and progressive optimism about a ceasefire framework.

What the Market Is Pricing

Resolution, not stalemate. The S&P 500’s 7-point gain on May 27 is small. But it came on a day when the U.S. military carried out fresh strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and shot down four Iranian drones around the Strait of Hormuz. In any other context, that would be a sell signal. Instead, the market shrugged it off as routine “self-defense” within an active ceasefire framework. The implicit assumption is that the 60-day extension announced May 24 will hold and that the final deal will arrive on schedule. Anything less than that gets reflected in oil futures and credit spreads, both of which have continued to normalize.

AI is the anchor. Nvidia’s $81.6 billion quarter, announced May 20, did more to lift the market than any peace deal could have. Combined with SK Hynix and Micron joining the $1 trillion club on May 26, the AI infrastructure trade is now contributing meaningfully to broader index returns. Taiwan’s Taiex hit a record close on May 27 after Jensen Huang announced $150 billion in annual Taiwan spending. The semis are not just leading. They are creating the conditions where the broader market can rally even on bad geopolitical days.

The Fed remains the wild card. ECB officials signaled a June rate hike. U.S. Fed speakers continue to flag inflation risks from the Iran conflict without committing to timing. The IMF still has 2026 inflation pegged at 4.4%. If the consumer rolls over before the Fed cuts, the AI-led rally meets a recession the bond market is still pretending not to see.